A sentence for Ukraine
Alyona Getmanchuk writes: Ukrainians are so fed up with the old politicians that virtually any new face could pose a more serious challenge to Viktor Yanukovych than Yulia Tymoshenko.
A Ukrainian court’s conviction of Yulia Tymoshenko on charges of abusing her powers when she signed natural gas contracts with Russia in 2009, when she was the prime minister, is not necessarily proof that she actually committed a crime.
Nobody, except perhaps President Viktor Yanukovych and his inner circle, really believes in the independence of the Ukrainian judiciary. In fact, this case can be viewed as a new chapter in Ukrainian politics — criminal prosecution for political motives.
Yanukovych had two such motives. First was to get rid of an opposition leader whose presence in the political arena has been a source of acute discomfort for him since the days of the Orange Revolution. Tymoshenko played a leading role in that popular uprising, which blocked Yanukovych’s first attempt in 2004 to secure the presidency. In his second bid in 2010, he narrowly defeated Tymoshenko.
The second motive was to use the Tymoshenko case as leverage against Russia to lower the price of gas sold to Ukraine. In the trial, Russia figured as an accomplice in an illegal transaction, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev as allies of Tymoshenko — an ironic reversal of Yanukovych’s reputation in the West as the Kremlin’s ally.
The Ukrainian government regards the current price of Russian gas as unfair, especially after Yanukovych, in a bid to lower it, extended the lease on Russian naval bases in the Crimea for 25 years, to 2042, and rejected NATO membership for Ukraine.
Yanukovych clearly did not expect that immediately after he satisfied those two Russian demands, Moscow would add two more: Ukrainian accession to a customs union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, and the merger of the Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz with Russia’s Gazprom — a union that would give the Kremlin control over Ukraine’s gas transport network.
Yet the prosecution of Tymoshenko could end up as a political sentence for Yanukovych. For one thing, Tymoshenko would probably be the most convenient sparring partner if he runs for re-election in 2015.
Public distrust of Tymoshenko is higher than of most other Ukrainian politicians, so she would be less dangerous as an active opponent than as a political martyr.
Ukrainians are so fed up with the old politicians that virtually any new face could pose a more serious challenge to Yanukovych than Tymoshenko. A recent poll, for example, showed that the 37-year-old leader of the “Front for Change,” the former Foreign Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, would be a greater threat to Yanukovych than Tymoshenko.
The Tymoshenko case also stands to seriously harm Ukraine’s relations with the European Union — relations which are essential to Ukraine’s future.
This month Ukraine is supposed to be dotting the final “i” in its negotiations over an association agreement with the European Union, which includes an agreement on a free trade zone.
Paradoxical as it may sound, the “pro-Russian” Yanukovych now has a better chance to bring Ukraine closer to the EU than his “pro-European” predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, ever had.
An association agreement with the E.U. would preclude Ukraine’s participation in a customs union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, and make Ukraine’s European path irreversible.
But over the past month Yanukovych has received clear signals from Europe that sending Tymoshenko to prison will create problems for the Kyiv-Brussels dialogue and for the subsequent ratification of any agreements by European parliaments.
The problem is that some advisers to Yanukovich believe that European negotiators are using Tymoshenko as a pretext for slowing down Ukraine’s integration in the EU, and that if there were no Tymoshenko case, they’d find another pretext.
They also believe that the EU will sign an association agreement no matter how the Tymoshenko case is resolved.
Finally, a guilty verdict against Tymoshenko clearly will not improve relations with Russia. The issue is not Tymoshenko herself — though many in Kyiv and Moscow believe that Putin now prefers her to Yanukovych as a partner.
The fact is that her case involves natural gas agreements with Russia; a guilty verdict is more likely to worsen Yanukovych’s relations with Putin than to make Russia more compliant on gas prices. That is not what Yanukovych needs in advance of parliamentary elections scheduled for next year.
The Tymoshenko case is not a battle of good and evil, of a “democratic and pro-European” Tymoshenko against an “autocratic and pro-Russian” Yanukovych, as some in the West seem to think. Tymoshenko is not a symbol of Ukrainian democracy, nor of Ukraine’s European choice. But this court ruling against her could have serious negative consequences both for Ukraine’s democracy and its European hopes.
Do Ukrainian leaders understand that? If yes, they should do everything possible to alter Ukraine’s Soviet-era laws, and to set Tymoshenko free.
October 27th, 2011
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What next for Ukraine?
Leigh Turner writes: UK, EU want Tymoshenko to be set free and able to participate in future elections
This week, for almost the first time since I arrived in Ukraine in June 2008, Ukraine has been the number one item on the BBC World News website and in other media around the world.
Friends have been getting in touch to ask me what’s going on, and where Ukraine is going. It’s an important question.
The cause of this interest and concern is the sentencing of ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko on Oct. 11 to seven years in prison, a three-year political ban and a massive fine.
Discussion in the media has focused on whether the trial verdict means that Ukraine has given up on its ambitions to integrate with Europe and become a democratic EU-type country, or whether the outcome of the trial can somehow be overturned allowing Ukraine’s EU integration path to continue.
In the House of Commons on 12 October, British Prime Minister David Cameron said: “the treatment of Mrs Tymoshenko, whom I have met on previous occasions, is absolutely disgraceful. The Foreign Secretary has made a very strong statement about this. The Ukrainians need to know that if they leave the situation as it is, it will severely affect their relationship not only with the UK but with the European Union and NATO.”
All this raises the question as to what exactly has to happen in order for the EU integration process – in the first instance, the signature and ratification of the Association Agreement which Ukraine has been negotiating with the EU for the last four years – to continue. I discussed some of the issues in my recent blog “Tymoshenko in Yalta”.
The answer is that the UK and EU want to see Tymoshenko and other opposition leaders out of detention and able to participate in the political process, including the 2012 parliamentary elections.
Any outcome of the present trials which leaves a cloud threatening future political activities by opposition politicians, such as a big fine or continued legal uncertainty, is likely to lead to continued uncertainty about whether the association agreement will be signed and ratified.
The good news is that a mechanism to resolve the issue, in the form of proposals to decriminalize the offenses of which Tymoshenko is accused, is ready and waiting in the Ukrainian parliament. It could in theory be activated, and Tymoshenko freed, as early as next week, before President Viktor Yanukovych is due to visit Brussels on 20 October. The questions is whether Ukraine has the political will to make this happen.
Does Ukraine have that political will? The key point is that this is up to Ukraine.
The EU is not trying to force Ukraine to do anything. Nor is the EU desperate to sign the association agreement if Ukraine does not demonstrate by its actions that it, too, is keen.
In short, like any other country which wants to integrate with the EU, if Ukraine wants to move towards joining the European club and becoming an EU-type country, it has to behave in an EU-type way.
Final point: some commentators in Ukraine have suggested that maybe the Tymoshenko trial is a cunning way to persuade the EU to grant Ukraine a membership perspective (i.e. to say that, one day, Ukraine will definitely join). Perhaps, they argue, if Ms Tymoshenko is got out of jail the EU will be so grateful that it will grant such a perspective. I discussed this issue in a recent blog, “How to make Ukraine more European”.
Frankly, it seems improbable to me that anyone is thinking in these kind of transactional terms but again, just for the avoidance of any doubt, the events of the past week cannot possibly have any positive impact on the likelihood of Ukraine getting a membership perspective.
If anything, unfortunately, the reverse is true. If that is where this affair ends up, it will be a an immense shame, for Ukraine and for Europe.
October 27th, 2011
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Tihipko: Ukraine’s cooperation with IMF remains priority, rise in gas price not yet on agenda
Ukraine’s cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will remain a priority for Ukraine. However, the requirement to raise gas price for households is a difficult political decision, which is still too early to speak about, Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Social Policy Serhiy Tihipko told UKRINFORM after attending the 2011 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund in Washington.
“Ukraine expects the arrival of an IMF mission in late October. We will hold more consultations with them. But whether the decision on gas tariffs will be made or not, if so, when, it is too early to speak about yet. It is a very difficult political decision,” the deputy prime minister emphasized.
According to him, after the approval of pension reform the issue of gas tariffs rise has remained “practically one serious condition” for the next disbursement under an IMF Stand-By Arrangement. As referred to the Fund’s requirement concerning fiscal deficit, Tihipko expressed confidence that Ukraine would keep 3.5% of GDP this year and seeks not to exceed a deficit of 2.5% of GDP next year. “And as referred to gas tariffs – this is a real challenge. How to do it correctly, how fast … I can say that this question here sees arduous debate. Over the past four years it has been a key term of cooperation, which the previous government had failed to meet, and which we partially meet, but not yet in full,” Tihipko said.
At the same time, he noted that Ukraine should first make public utilities sector transparent. “Because when the sector is opaque, there is a lot of corruption, which people have to pay for. I’m strongly against it. We should first make the sector transparent, so that no one steal from there. And then it would be desirable to raise the tariffs,” the official added.
Tihipko said that in the near future he personally wants to initiate a program on transparency in public utilities.
He also added that an agreement was reached that in early October Ukraine will be attended by World Bank experts to help draw up an action plan to make the energy and public utilities sectors transparent.
At the same time, the deputy prime minister stressed that the next IMF disbursement is “very important” for Ukraine. “As overseas markets are already bad. The tranche provides us with several loans that we could get from the World Bank. Virtually, conditions on the two loans worth USD 350 million and USD 500 million are fulfilled. This would give us the opportunity to speak more constructively with the EU about the assistance of EUR 610 million. This is serious money today. It is hard to take such money in the market today. Therefore, cooperation with the IMF remains a priority for us and I am convinced it should remain a priority,” Tihipko emphasized.
“The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank – it is not institutions that have unlimited money,” he said. Asked by a reporter to clarify whether this limited resources of financial institutions, especially after large amounts of aid granted by them during the last crisis, could influence Ukraine, he said “If we stay within the program in which we currently cooperate with the IMF, they couldn’t. “USD 13 billion is reserved for us, and they won’t be spent anywhere. If, God forbid, we got off the program and start a new program, there will be a resource problem, because many countries would like to reserve money to get assistance from international organizations”.
As UKRINFORM reported, the 2011 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund were held in Washington, September 23-25, with a Ukrainian delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Tihipko.
October 27th, 2011
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Party of Regions positively appraises European Parliament’s resolution on Ukraine
The Party of Regions, on the whole, positively appraises a resolution of the European Parliament on Ukraine, adopted October 27, although they consider recommendations on interference with judicial processes as inadmissible, Party of Regions MP Olena Bondarenko has said.
“We understand well that those recommendations (on a case versus ex-Premier Yulia Tymoshenko) are of a political character, they are based on emotions and a personal attitude to Mrs. Tymoshenko of politicians sympathizing with her, as well as her political partners, in particular, the European People’s Party,” she said.
Bondarenko named as positive moment of the resolution the fact that the European Parliament spoke for speeding up of a visit by President Viktor Yanukovych to Brussels and the fact that a wish was fixed in the document to completely initial the association agreement between Ukraine and the European Union.
October 27th, 2011
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Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has said that it is necessary to conduct state policies aimed at increasing the adoption of children by Ukrainian citizens.
"We must do everything to ensure that all children deprived of parental care, regardless of their age and health, are adopted by Ukrainian citizens and stay in a [family] home," he said in Kyiv on Thursday at a nationwide council on the protection of children's rights.
Viktor Yanukovych noted that the number of children adopted by Ukrainians had been gradually falling over the past two years.
"We need to improve this work and overcome stereotypes in a sensitive area like adoption, better inform Ukrainian citizens and actively involve the media in this noble cause," he said.
He also said that such projects as "Children Search Service," "This Child Needs a Family" and the national portal sirotstvu.net were being successfully implemented in Ukraine.
October 27th, 2011
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Yanukovych describes Ukraine as a center of economic growth
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has said that Ukraine is now one of the centers of economic growth in the world.
“There are small centers of economic growth in the world, and you know that I travel a lot around the world, so Ukraine is one of these centers, and we must preserve and value this,” he said in Kyiv on Thursday, while closing a nationwide meeting on the protection of children’s rights.
Yanukovych promised that every year Ukraine would increase funding for programs on protecting and ensuring proper living conditions for Ukrainian children. He said that GDP growth and the growth of the Ukrainian economy contributed to this.
“There’s no need to very often encourage people to live well. It is our duty to ensure that it is so,” he said.
October 27th, 2011
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EP supports resolution on Ukraine with EU’s recommendation to hold meeting with Yanukovych
The European Parliament on Thursday supported a joint resolution on Ukraine by a simple majority.
The vote took place during a plenary session in Strasbourg without any debate beforehand.
In its resolution, the European Parliament proposed that the European Commission hold a meeting with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych ahead of the EU-Ukraine summit in order to “re-establish a constructive dialogue.”
“[The EP] considers that the recently postponed meeting with President Yanukovych would have offered an excellent opportunity to tackle serious concerns addressed towards the Ukrainian government and re-establish a constructive dialogue that could lead to the Association Agreement to be initialed provided there is significant progress on both technical and vital political obstacles still in place; calls on the [EU] Council and the [European] Commission to reschedule the recently postponed meeting with President Yanukovych ahead of the foreseen EU-Ukraine Summit in December 2011,” reads the document.
This clause is one of the closing in the resolution. It is preceded by other provisions that cover a range of bilateral relations, starting from the strategic level – the recognition of Ukraine’s aspirations for EU membership, and ending with recommendations on the examination of possible mistakes in decision-making at the government level in special parliamentary commissions.
“[The EP] takes the view that a deepening of relations between the EU and Ukraine and the fact of offering Ukraine a European perspective are of great significance and in the interests of both parties; recognizing Ukraine’s aspirations pursuant to Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, provided that all criteria, including respect for the principles of democracy, human rights, fundamental freedoms and the rule of law, are met,” reads the resolution.
As for the case of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the EP “deplores the sentencing of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko as a violation of human rights and an abuse of the judiciary for the purpose of the political suppression of Ukraine’s leading opposition politician.” In this connection, the parliament said that the “law selectively applied against Tymoshenko dates back to Soviet times and makes provision for criminal prosecution for political decisions; whereas Articles 364 and 365 of that law, which are currently under review by the Verkhovna Rada, do not conform to European and UN standards.”
“[The EP] urges the Ukrainian authorities to ensure a fair, transparent and impartial legal process should Yulia Tymoshenko appeal against her conviction, and in the other trials against members of the former government; insists that Yulia Tymoshenko should be allowed to exercise her right to participate fully in the political process both as of now and in the forthcoming elections in Ukraine,” reads the resolution.
The parliament expressed concern that “the Tymoshenko trial is at odds with the Ukrainian government’s proclaimed commitment to democracy and European values.”
“[The EP] takes the view that a failure to review Yulia Tymoshenko’s conviction will jeopardize the conclusion of the Association Agreement and its ratification, while pushing the country further away from the realization of its European perspective,” reads the document.
October 27th, 2011
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European Parliament’s resolution shows support for Ukraine’s aspirations for EU membership, says Foreign Ministry
The Foreign Ministry of Ukraine has said that Thursday’s vote by the European Parliament for a resolution on Ukraine is evidence of its support for Ukraine’s aspirations for EU membership.
“The resolution is evidence of the fact that Ukraine’s movement towards EU membership has not been stopped,” director of the ministry’s information policy department Oleh Voloshyn said at a briefing in Kyiv on Thursday.
He said the Foreign Ministry views the resolution as a success for the country, as it contains an appeal to offer the prospect of EU memberhsip to Ukraine.
Voloshyn said that Kyiv takes into account the EU’s assessment of the internal political processes in Ukraine. He drew attention to the fact that the European Parliament has urged the European Commission to provide specific assistance to Ukraine in reforming its judicial system.
October 27th, 2011
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Ukraine wants clarity about duration of association agreement, says Ukrainian Foreign Ministry
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has said that it does not urge the European Union to designate a specific date of Ukraine’s accession to the EU, but wants to know the period of validity of the association agreement between Ukraine and the EU.
“We did not demand a specific date of entry to the EU at the talks. We were talking about the date of expiration of the association agreement,” Director of Information Policy Department of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Oleh Voloshyn said at a briefing in Kyiv on Thursday.
“We do not want a permanent agreement,” he said.
According to Voloshyn, if a specific date for termination of the agreement is set, the EU will have a reason to change the format of its relations with Ukraine towards greater integration.
October 27th, 2011
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Prison Service: No special prisons for women in Kyiv region
Ihor Andrushko, an assistant to the head of the State Prison Service of Ukraine, has said that there are no separate prisons for women in Kyiv region.
“I would like to note that there are no separate prisons for women in Kyiv region,” he said at a press conference in Kyiv on Wednesday.
Andrushko said that a request for the placement of convicts in penal institutions is approved at a meeting of a commission created at the central office of the State Prison Service. He said that the commission places prisoners in terms of regions, categories, and the modes of penal institutions.
However, he voiced no suggestion as to what prison former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko could be sent to serve their sentences if the verdicts against them come into force.
“As of today, public figures who are held in jail – not just the former prime minister or former interior minister – now none of them have the status of being convicted, until their sentence comes into force… Therefore, I currently have no legal or moral right to decide on something or invent something. When there is a court ruling, when the sentence comes into force, then the commission will examine all of the documents and take a decision [on sending convicts to certain penal institutions],” Andrushko said.
Expert: Ukraine to annually import up to 20 bcm of gas through Slovakia from 2015.